Metro Manila Real Estate Market Data 2026
Key 2026 market indicators: BGC office vacancy: 8.2% (improving), BGC premium residential occupancy: 91.5%, Makati CBD residential occupancy: 89.8%, Average BGC 1BR gross yield: 8.3%, YTD price appreciation (BGC): +5.8%, YTD price appreciation (Makati): +4.2%, New supply pipeline 2026 (premium segment): 4,800 units vs 2025 demand absorption of 6,200 units — net tightening of supply. Foreign buyer transactions: +35% YoY, driven by Japanese, Korean, and Singaporean investors.
Infrastructure Impact on Manila Property Values
Upcoming infrastructure projects with direct property value impact: (1) Metro Manila Subway (MRT-7) — 10 stations connecting North Caloocan to BGC, completion 2029: Quezon City properties near stations already showing 15-20% appreciation above market, (2) NSCR (North-South Commuter Railway) — completion 2025-2027: Alabang-BGC commute drops from 90 to 30 minutes, boosting Alabang values, (3) EDSA Greenway Project — elevated park above EDSA: Mandaluyong and Quezon City properties within 500m are appreciating 8-12% above area average.
Risks to Monitor for Manila Real Estate 2026
Key risk factors for 2026-2028: (1) BPO sector disruption — if AI automation reduces Philippine BPO workforce by 10%+, Ortigas and Eastwood demand would be most affected, (2) Interest rate movement — a 200bps rate increase would reduce buyer purchasing power approximately 15%, (3) Peso depreciation — weakening PHP makes properties cheaper for USD-holding foreign investors but reduces real returns for peso-based investors, (4) Political risk — election cycles create temporary uncertainty, (5) Climate risk — extreme weather events are increasing; NAMRIA flood maps should be consulted before all purchases.